The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.00% during its November meeting, according to a Reuters poll. A slim majority of economists now believe the central bank will refrain from further policy easing this year, potentially ending a series of quarterly 25-basis-point cuts ahead of the government’s crucial budget announcement on November 26, which is expected to include tax increases.
Most economists, however, still anticipate two additional rate cuts by mid-2026.
UK consumer inflation stood at 3.8% in September—almost twice the BoE’s 2% target—but analysts predict a gradual decline over the coming year. Of the 61 economists surveyed between October 22 and 28, 53 (around 87%) forecast that the BoE will hold its Bank Rate at 4.00% on November 6. Since August 2024, the central bank has lowered rates by a total of 125 basis points.
In the latest poll, just over half of respondents (34 of 63) expect the Bank Rate to remain unchanged through year-end, marking a shift from last month when nearly 70% projected at least one more reduction this quarter. The remaining 29 participants still foresee a rate cut by December.
Interest rate futures now suggest a 58% chance of at least one cut by December, down from 75% a week earlier. Looking further ahead, slightly more than half of economists (35 of 63) expect the Bank Rate to fall to 3.75% by the end of March 2026, while over 60% anticipate a further decline to 3.50% in the second quarter.
“We’ve pushed back our rate cut call from November to February, but the data we’ve had over the last week or so does raise the question of whether we could get a cut in December. It comes down to the data we get between now and then, but also the budget and whether or not there are any surprises,” said James Smith, developed markets economist at ING.
