British grocery inflation eased to 4.7% in the four weeks to November 2 as supermarkets rolled out early Christmas promotions, according to industry data released on Tuesday, offering some respite to shoppers ahead of expected tax increases in this month’s government budget.
The latest figures from Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar) — which serve as an early gauge of pricing trends before official inflation data due on November 19 — marked a decline from 5.2% in the previous month’s report.
Official data published last month showed that UK inflation remained steady at 3.8% in September, while food inflation continued to moderate.
Worldpanel noted that prices were rising fastest in categories such as chocolate confectionery, fresh meat, and coffee, while falling in household paper, sugar confectionery, and dog food.
Grocery sales increased 3.2% year-on-year over the four-week period — below the rate of inflation — suggesting a decline in sales volumes. Spending on promotional deals climbed 9.4%, compared with just 1.8% growth for full-priced items.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said:
“Just under 30% of spending at grocers in October was on promoted items — a figure we expect to rise even higher as Christmas approaches.”
Among the major retailers, Tesco and Sainsbury’s saw sales rise 5.9% and 5.2% respectively over the 12 weeks to November 2. In contrast, Asda’s sales dropped 3.9%, with its market share slipping by one percentage point to 11.6%.
Aldi remained the fastest-growing British grocer, with sales surging 15.9%, while Lidl GB continued as the fastest-growing bricks-and-mortar supermarket, up 10.8%.
Separately, new surveys on Tuesday indicated that overall UK consumer spending slowed in October as shoppers held back in anticipation of Black Friday discounts and the upcoming November 26 budget.
